OSUN ELECTION: A POST MORTEM

By Nick Dazang 

Hours before the conduct of the Osun State Off-Cycle Governorship Election, on Saturday, 15th August 2026, the tension in the State, and which gripped the entire country like a vice, was so thick that one could cut it with a blunt machete.

By the accounting of three Observer groups – The Kukah Center, Kimpact Development Initiative and YIAGA-AFRICA – not less than thirty people had been killed in direct, election-related violence in Osun State. A Senator bizarrely, and in blood-curdling fashion, directed his followers to kill members of a party contesting the election. Bigwigs of the governing party at the center descended, in droves, on Osun State, to lend support to their candidate.

 

Compounding these, the Federal High Court, Abuja, at the eve of the election, had directed that the Independent National Electoral Commission(INEC) include the candidate of the Social Democratic Party(SDP) on the ballot. This eleventh hour order compelled INEC to do a re-print of all the ballots, results sheets and collation papers to be deployed for the election.

On Election Day, there were incidents. The EU-SDGN Election Observation Hub said it recorded thirty eight(38) security incidents and the perpetration of 323 cases of alleged electoral offenses across 726 Polling Units(PUs). Vote trading was widespread.

These incidents and other cases of ballot box snatching, over voting and attacks on voting cubicles, prompted the cancellation of results in several PUs. They, however, were not so rampant as to affect the sanctity or credibility of the election.

The Commission, in spite of the last minute court order to include the SDP, stalwartly rose to the occasion. Apart from re-printing the sensitive materials timeously, and at huge cost, it was at 6.09p.m. on Friday, a day to the election, able to achieve 100% activation of 332 Registration Area Centers(RACs) and 89 Super Registration Area Centers(SUPER RACs)across Osun State.

On Election Day(Saturday 15th), INEC accomplished Polling Unit(PU) Opening of 3,556 out of a total of 3,763 PUs, thereby attaining 94.5% commencement of polls at 8.30 a.m. The outstanding 207 PUs, representing 5.5%, which experienced minor delays, were operational by 9.00 a.m. This is not a mean feat in view of the late court order, the re-print of all the sensitive materials and the nightmarish logistics involved.

As at 11.57 p.m. on Saturday, results for 3,544 out of the 3,763 PUs had been uploaded on the INEC Results Viewing Portal (IReV). Although glitches characterized the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) devices during the mock exercise carried out on Saturday, 1st August 2026, these challenges did not hallmark the election.

 

The Registration Area Technical Support Staff (RATECHS), acquitted themselves well. As a result, the BVAS worked almost seamlessly across the board.

In spite of the fact that negative mobilization by politicians and violence preceded the election, it was keenly contested. True to Osun State’s electoral pedigree, it was a three-horse race. The candidates of ACCORD, All Progressives Congress (APC) and African Democratic Congress (ADC) were the leading contenders.

The turnout reflected the massive mobilization that came before the election. Not less than 43.20% of voters turned out to cast their votes. This turnout is consistent with the ones in the previous three election cycles. In 2014, the voter turnout was 54%. In 2018, it was 45% while in 2022, it was 42.16%.

Whereas, in other States (except of course, in Anambra, which has a recent history of low voter turnout due to violence, driven by insurgency) voter turnout shows a downward trajectory, in Osun State, it is upward bound. It also goes above the national average when we consider that the 2023 presidential election saw a voter turnout of 26.72%.

The Osun State Off-Cycle Governorship Election instructs and underscores: It teaches us that when critical stakeholders in the electoral process comport themselves with professionalism and integrity, and when they work in concert, election outcomes become credible and widely accepted.

The people of Osun State deserve commendation for demonstrating a resilience that was both true to type and ennobling. Apart from coming out, in their numbers, to vote, many stayed put at the PUs after voting, until the results were announced. Others were not done. They accompanied the results to the various stages of collation(Ward, Local Government, State). This safeguarded the sanctity of their votes.

Since collation has been adjudged by stakeholders to be the weakest link in the chain of the electoral process, its being susceptible to subterfuge, voters, in due course, should show similar vigilance in protecting the sanctity of their mandate.

The winner of this fierce contest, Adeleke Ademola Jackson Nurudeen, of the ACCORD Party, demonstrated uncommon doggedness. He showed that victory could be snatched from the jaws of imminent defeat. He underlined the fact that a courageous David can slay a hulking Goliath. And he showed that a steadfast contender, possessed of moxie and determination, could bring about the vision Marcus Aurelius, the Roman Emperor, once expounded:”The impediment to action advances action. What stands in the way becomes the way”.

The result of Governor Adeleke’s valiant effort is that he secured 511,067 votes, as against his runner up’s(Oyebamiji Bola’s) 444,815. He won with a margin, between him and his runner up, of 66,252 votes. This is the largest margin since the conduct of the 2018 Osun State Off-Cycle Governorship Election.

Governor Adeleke’s victory should inspire members of the opposition and assure them of their prospects for victory. This is especially if they get their acts together. It should also serve as an awakening to members of the governing party who assume they will have a smooth ride. The Titanic (ship) is in danger of being hit by an iceberg.

The last minute court order demanding INEC to include the SDP candidate in the Osun Off-cycle Governorship Election should compel the Commission to further engage with the Judiciary.

 

Election cases should not only be accorded accelerated hearings, subsequent court orders should be given in such timely and auspicious fashion as not to jeopardize election logistics or the conduct of elections. The political class should be engaged to refrain from issuing incendiary comments which have potential of inciting gullible supporters to resort to violence.

Lessons should be learnt from all the eight off-cycle governorship elections and the National and State Houses of Assembly bye and re-run elections so far conducted. These should be factored into the conduct of the 2027 General Elections. Free, fair and credible elections are do-able. We