Nigeria Gradually Reducing Dependence on Oil, Borrowing for FX — TSF
Oru Leonard
The Tinubu Stakeholders Forum (TSF) has said Nigeria is gradually reducing its dependence on crude oil earnings, government borrowing and Central Bank interventions to meet its foreign exchange (FX) needs, following a significant rise in autonomous FX inflows.
The Forum, in a statement signed by its Chairman, Ahmad Sajoh, and Secretary, Danjuma Sada, said autonomous FX inflows rose to $70.54 billion in 2025, representing a 25.12 per cent increase from the $56.38 billion recorded in 2024.
According to TSF, the figure accounted for 64.21 per cent of the total $109.86 billion FX inflows recorded during the year.
The Forum attributed the growth largely to non-oil export receipts, capital importation and over-the-counter market transactions, describing the development as evidence of the increasing contribution of exporters, investors and private businesses to Nigeria’s foreign exchange supply.
TSF said the figures validated the FX reforms of the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and their implementation by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) under Governor Olayemi Cardoso.
It listed the reforms to include the consolidation of the FX market, adoption of the willing-buyer, willing-seller framework, clearance of the verified $7 billion FX backlog, introduction of the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System and the launch of the Nigerian FX Code.
The Forum said the measures had helped strengthen transparency, promote ethical conduct and improve confidence in the FX market.
It added that tighter supervision of Bureau de Change operations and stronger enforcement of the repatriation of oil and non-oil export proceeds had also improved liquidity, reduced market distortions and encouraged exporters and investors to channel FX through the formal market.
TSF further noted that aggregate FX inflows increased by 13.81 per cent to $109.86 billion in 2025, while inflows through the CBN declined by 2.08 per cent to $39.32 billion, mainly due to lower receipts from government debt and FX swaps.
The Forum described the development as significant, arguing that Nigeria’s FX position was increasingly being supported by exports, investment and productive private-sector activity rather than external borrowing and temporary financial arrangements.
“The increase in autonomous inflows is a strong indication that Nigeria is beginning to earn more foreign exchange from non-oil exports, investment and private enterprise,” the statement said.
“This is the more sustainable pathway to economic stability because it broadens Nigeria’s sources of foreign exchange and reduces excessive dependence on volatile crude oil earnings, government borrowing and repeated Central Bank interventions.”
According to the Forum, stronger autonomous FX inflows would improve liquidity for manufacturers and importers, enhance access to foreign exchange for machinery and raw materials, encourage non-oil exporters and help reduce pressure on the naira.
It added that sustained growth in export earnings and capital inflows would strengthen the country’s external reserves, boost investor confidence and reinforce macroeconomic stability.
TSF, however, acknowledged that aggregate FX outflows also increased to $49.05 billion in 2025, partly reflecting higher transactions through autonomous channels and increased foreign currency obligations by businesses and investors.
The Forum stressed the need to further expand non-oil exports and domestic production to ensure that foreign exchange inflows continue to outpace outflows.
It urged the Federal Government to deepen incentives for exporters, remove trade and logistics bottlenecks, strengthen local value addition and ensure the full repatriation of export proceeds through the formal market.
TSF maintained that the growing contribution of autonomous FX sources showed that the Tinubu administration was gradually replacing a fragmented and intervention-dependent FX system with a more transparent, credible and market-driven framework capable of attracting investment, supporting exports and strengthening Nigeria’s external position.
