TCN Rebuts ‘Stranded Power’ Claims, Says NERC Data Shows Generation Constraints Drive Electricity Shortfall
Oru Leonard
The Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) has challenged claims by the Association of Power Generation Companies (APGC), that Nigeria’s electricity “stranded power” crisis is primarily caused by transmission limitations, insisting that official data from the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), points instead to generation-side constraints.
In a detailed press statement issued on July 30, 2026, TCN was responding to a July 28 THISDAY report in which APGC reportedly claimed that more than 2,500 megawatts of generated electricity are wasted daily because the national grid can only wheel about 4,500MW despite an installed generation capacity of over 15,500MW.
According to TCN, NERC’s First Quarter 2026 Report shows that the average generation capacity declared available by power plants during the period was 4,457.96MW—virtually the same figure APGC attributed to the grid’s transmission limit. The company argued that this demonstrates the bottleneck lies with the amount of electricity available from generation companies rather than the transmission network.
TCN also disputed APGC’s installed capacity figure, noting that NERC’s report puts the total installed capacity of the 28 grid-connected power plants at 13,625MW.
The transmission company maintained that its verified wheeling capacity currently stands at 8,700MW following sustained investments in transmission infrastructure, including transformers, substations and transmission lines. It cited the national grid’s record transmission peak of 5,801.84MW achieved on March 4, 2025, as evidence that the network is capable of transmitting significantly more than the 4,500MW figure referenced by APGC.
Highlighting recent infrastructure improvements, TCN said it commissioned 82 new power transformers between January 2024 and November 2025, adding approximately 8,500MVA of transformation capacity nationwide. It also referenced the commissioning of the Ihovbor–Benin and Ihovbor–Ajaokuta 330kV transmission lines, which it said added more than 600MW of wheeling capacity to the Benin transmission corridor.
The company further argued that NERC’s Plant Availability Factor (PAF) data shows that generation facilities were the primary source of the country’s electricity shortfall. According to the report, the average PAF for the quarter stood at 32.72 percent, meaning more than two-thirds of installed generation capacity was unavailable for dispatch during the period.
TCN pointed to several generating plants that recorded extremely low availability, including Alaoji I, Rivers I, Ibom Power, Sapele Steam, Trans Amadi and Omotosho II, attributing the poor performance largely to gas supply shortages, maintenance issues and mechanical faults.
It noted that APGC itself acknowledged in the THISDAY report that gas supply to thermal power plants had fallen below 43 percent of daily requirements, arguing that this supports NERC’s findings on generation constraints.
The transmission company also rejected claims that between 2,500MW and 4,000MW of electricity is stranded daily due to transmission bottlenecks. It cited NERC’s reported grid load factor of 92.26 percent for the first quarter of 2026, mm indicating that only about 345MW of available generation capacity went undispatched on average during the period.
TCN further stated that five generating plants achieved a 100 percent load factor during the quarter, meaning every megawatt they declared available was successfully evacuated by the transmission network.
Addressing concerns over technical losses, TCN said NERC recorded a Transmission Loss Factor of 7.96 percent, equivalent to an average hourly loss of about 327MW, significantly lower than the 1,200–1,300MW daily losses cited in the report.
The company also clarified that the January 27, 2026 partial grid collapse was, according to NERC’s preliminary findings, linked to inadequate reactive power support on the generation side rather than transmission infrastructure failure. It acknowledged responsibility for the separate total system collapse on January 23, 2026, which resulted from a busbar separation at the Sapele Transmission Station, noting that the incident had been investigated.
On the issue of capacity payment losses, TCN argued that the reported ₦2.28 trillion loss was more closely tied to commercial and market challenges, including electricity distribution companies’ collection and remittance shortfalls, rather than transmission constraints.
Reaffirming its commitment to improving grid reliability, TCN said it would continue investing in network expansion, substation upgrades, grid automation and anti-vandalism measures while collaborating with the Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO), NERC, GenCos, DisCos and other industry stakeholders.
The company urged stakeholders and industry commentators to base public discussions on NERC’s published data, stressing that evidence from the regulator’s first-quarter report indicates that Nigeria’s current “stranded power” challenge is rooted predominantly in generation limitations rather than transmission capacity.
